The RussianPresident Vladimir Putinwho is an avid reader of history books, ought to be familiar with the famous quote attributed to the German Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller indirectly condemning the complicity of German intellectuals and clergy following the Nazis’ rise to power and their subsequent incremental purging of their chosen targets —
“First they came for the Communists … Then they came for the Socialists… Thenthey came for the trade unionists… Thenthey came for the Jews… Then they came for me / And there was no one left / To speak out for me.”
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A similar predicament faces Russia today as the United States under the leadership ofPresident Donald Trumptook over Venezuela, a country with the largest oil reserves in the world, and is now slouching toward Iran, which holds the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves — while also “looking” at Russian oil as a necessary tool.
Washington has shifted its policy toward Russian oil during the past year by first sanctioning the movement of Russian crude into the global market and subsequently allowing waivers on the very same sanctions.
There is no question that the exit of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC and the wider OPEC+ framework with effect from May 1 carries the imprimatur of the US President Donald Trump. Had there been a sub-category of nations in the US diplomatic playbook under the rubric ‘Most Favoured Rentier-Nations’, the UAE would undoubtedly top the list — being the hub of petrodollar recycling.
The timing and regional act of the UAE’s exit from the oil cartel lends itself to various interpretations — a move to buttress its strategic autonomy; a challenge to the authority of Saudi Arabia; a masterly display of business savviness, etc. But in reality, the UAE is offering its services toWashington as a useful instrument for influencing energy prices and doubling down on its alignment with the US and Israel’s pressure campaign against Iran.
Simply put, it is a political act; and, it undermines OPEC+ discipline. The Kremlin, which did not counter the US’ oil grab in Venezuela and was largely passive so far mutely watching Trump’s brutal attempt to take control of Iran’s oil and gas reserves, cannot be oblivious of the near certainty that in the final countdown, he will make a pitch to isolate Russia and marginalise it in the geopolitics of oil.
OPEC+ was Putin’s brainwave, pivoted on his bonding with SaudiCrown Prince Mohammad bin Salman,to forestall American hegemony over the global energy market following the shale revolution and the US’ emergence as the world’s number one energy exporting country. (See my articlePay heed to the butterfly effect of Putin-Salman oil deal in Hangzhou, Asia Times, September 7, 2026.)
Source: Global Research
