Valentine’s Day is for chocolates, flowers, and irrational confidence, and Saturday’s college hoops slate has all three. With 17 games featuring Top-25 teams, the board is begging to be attacked. That’s where thisThree Best Bet Weavecomes in. I’m not trying to pick winners in every game, just isolating the spots where the market is giving us a real edge.

The card starts with a Clemson–Duke Under that screams "rock-fight," moves to Texas Tech catching points in a matchup that’s sneakily built to trade punches with Arizona, and finishes with a late-night Santa Clara spread that looks like a trap for anyone chasing the Gonzaga brand name. Three plays, three angles, one mission: Cash tickets.

Both teams have better defensive ratings than offensive ratings, and are poor free-throw shooting teams. The market overlooks Duke's defense since it has a Naismith College Player of the Year candidate inCameron Boozer. Clemson plays at a below-average pace, and both teams get back on defense and force teams slow their tempo down.

Duke Blue Devils big Cameron Boozer grabs a loose ball against the Pittsburgh Panthers. (Photo credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images)

Meanwhile, there shouldn't be a lot of putbacks or second-chance points since the Tigers are 10th in defensive rebounding rate, and Duke is 12th, per Ken Pom. Also, both teams are 4-8 Over/Under (O/U) in ACC games, and the Blue Devils are 2-7 O/U vs. ranked teams and 7-16 O/U as a favorite.

Also, this is an early start time, and we know college kids like to sleep in. Perhaps the early start time throws off their rhythm. Lastly, Clemson has gone Under the total in four of its five games before 3 p.m. ET, including three straight, and Duke has gone Under in three of its five games before 3 p.m. ET this season.

Texas Tech is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, averaging nearly five more made threes per game than their opponents. The Red Raiders have won back-to-back games entering Saturday after losing their previous two to the UCF Knights on the road and the Kansas Jayhawks at home.

The former is a bad loss; there is no sugar-coating it. The only excuse I'll make for Texas Tech for that loss is that in-conference road games are tough, regardless of the opponent. However, the Red Raiders were missing their second-leading scorer (19.1 points per game) and leading assist man (7.7 assists per game),Christian Anderson, vs. Kansas.

Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Christian Anderson drives to the paint against the Houston Cougars at United Supermarkets Arena. (Photo Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images)

While Arizona's resume validates its No. 1 overall ranking, TTU matches up well with it. Most teams don't have the backcourt to compete with Wildcats guardsBrayden BurriesandJaden Bradley, but the Red Raiders do with Anderson and SGDonovan Atwell, who are shooting 43.8% and 45.1% from behind the arc.

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