California Republicans spent months entertaining a fantasy: What if Steve Hilton andChad Biancoboth made the November runoff, and Democrats were shut out of the governor’s race?
That was never the real danger.
Rather, the danger was always the opposite: Not two Republicans locking Democrats out, but two Democrats shutting Republicans out.
After all, the 2024 presidential results and2025 Proposition 50results show the conservative share of the vote in California tops out around 40%.
And in a crowded top-two primary, a divided 40% can disappear quickly if the Democratic vote consolidates behind two candidates.
Now, with ballots arriving at voters’ doors, that danger is no longer theoretical.
The latest public polling shows liberal support beginning to consolidate around billionaire Tom Steyer and formerUS Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.
Becerra and Steyer are now the two Democrats with the clearest paths to the runoff. If that trend continues, the top two Republicans could perform well and still fail to qualify for the general election.
That is the brutal math of California’s top-two jungle primary.
There is no guaranteed Democratic slot. There is no guaranteed Republican slot. There are only two slots.
Source: California Post – Breaking California News, Photos & Videos
