Official Philippine government data show a 20-year decline in infant mortality was completely erased in just five years—alongside a collapse in live births.
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Amajor new peer-reviewed studywe just published inMedical Research Archiveshas uncovered a shocking reversal: after two decades of steady progress,infant mortality surged 37% since 2020, congenital abnormality deaths jumped 46%, and registered live births collapsed by 24%— all coinciding with expanded vaccination campaigns in the Philippines.
The study is titledGlobal Implications of Vaccination and Rising Infant Mortality in the Philippines, authored by Sally A. Clark, Claire Rogers, Mila Radetich, Nicolas Hulscher (myself), Kirstin Cosgrove, Breanne Craven, M. Nathaniel Mead, and James A. Thorp.
Using official Philippine Statistics Authority data on 41.7 million births and over 546,000 infant deaths from 2000–2024, plus Department of Health vaccination records, we documented a sharp turnaround after two decades of steady progress.
Infant mortality rate fell to a historic low of11.05 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2020. Then itrose 37% to 15.11 by 2024— a statistically significant jump (p < 0.0001) that erased more than 20 years of gains in just five years.
At the same time, registered live births dropped24%from their 2012 peak (p < 0.0001), with an accelerating decline after 2019.
We found clear temporal links between rising infant deaths and key elements of the national vaccination program.
Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV)coverage surged from 24% in 2015 to 76% in 2023. The correlation with infant mortality was extremely strong:r = 0.93 (p = 0.00074)from 2015–2023 andr = 0.77 (p = 0.016)when including 2024 data.
Source: Global Research
