For decades, West Bengal was the citadel of the Left. Then came Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress, painting the state green in 2011. As counting day approaches, the big question is whether Bengal is ready for another political transformation - this time to saffron. Exit polls have predicted a close contest between the TMC and BJP; but the gap seems to be narrowing down, if pollsters are to be believed.

The JVC exit poll has predicted a razor-close contest in West Bengal, with the BJP enjoying a marginal edge over the ruling TMC. According to the survey, the BJP is projected to win between 138 and 159 seats in the 294-member Assembly, while the TMC is expected to secure 131 to 152 seats.

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Other exit polls also paint a highly competitive picture. P-MARQ has projected the BJP at 150-175 seats, ahead of the TMC's 118-138, while the Congress is likely to remain on the fringes with 2-6 seats. Matrize, too, sees a possible power shift, estimating the BJP at 146-161 seats with a 42.5 per cent vote share, compared to TMC+'s 126-135 seats and a 40.8 per cent vote share.

Not all pollsters agree, however. People's Pulse has forecast a comfortable victory for the TMC, projecting 177-187 seats for Mamata Banerjee's party, while placing the BJP at 95-110. Poll Diary, meanwhile, predicts another cliffhanger, giving the BJP 142-171 seats and the TMC 99-127.

The BJP's rise in Bengal has been nothing short of remarkable. In the 2016 Assembly election, it won just three seats. Five years later, it emerged as the principal opposition, bagging 77 seats and nearly 38 per cent of the vote. That was the BJP's best-ever performance in the state, even though Mamata Banerjee's TMC retained power with a commanding 215 seats and over 48 per cent vote share.

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That surge transformed Bengal from a one-sided contest into one of India's fiercest political battlegrounds.

Now, after two terms of aggressive expansion, the BJP believes 2026 could finally be its breakthrough moment. Exit polls have suggested a close contest, with several even giving the saffron party an edge. Mamata, however, has dismissed those projections, insisting that her party will return to power comfortably.

The electoral math supports the suspense. In 2021, as many as 35 seats were decided by margins of fewer than 5,000 votes. A small swing in these battleground constituencies could dramatically alter the final tally. Many of these seats are concentrated in North Bengal, Junglemahal, and industrial belts - regions where the BJP has built significant strength.

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