JD Vance sent his last mean tweetFeb. 3about Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y. His last really hair-raising retweets were the week in January he amplified attacks on the slain Alex Pretti.

This is, two people close to the vice president told me, because he deleted X from his phone for Lent, which began Feb. 18; it’s unclear if he’s put it back. Does this mean that he views it as a personal pleasure he will temporarily forgo, or a bad habit he’s trying to purge? His allies aren’t sure. But in any event, he seems to have less time on his hands and less to talk about, what with the surprise portfolio of ending a war that President Donald Trump helpfully announced Vance opposed.

And Vance doesn’t seem to mind deflating the balloon. One of his biggest cheerleaders recentlywrotethat he might skip the contest. The Washington Posthintedhe might choose to spend more time with his growing family. And it’s been a hard year for everyone in the Trump administration with future political aspirations.

But after a round of conversations this past week with Vance’s circle and people close to his putative rivals alike, I emerged surprised that his given odds aren’t higher.(NB: Semafor employees aren’t allowed to bet!)

Much of this is just the obvious political reality of Trump’s Republican Party. But there’s also a kind of sneering conventional wisdom toward Vance that doesn’t seem to have much basis in political reality. In his short public career, he’s been a bestselling author and an effective political performer who won a Senate seat and mopped the floor with Tim Walz on the debate stage.

As important, he has managed the Republican coalition more deftly than his critics imagine: He has loyally served its most important constituent, Trump, and remained close to Donald Trump Jr. And yet the elements of the party who now loathe or, at best, roll their eyes at Trump hold out hope for Vance. He has been working the Republican coalition hard and, essentially, alone.

Vance has maintained his deep ties with the new Republican business class in California, but also quietly deepened his relationship with the old Republican power center of Wall Street. He has won friends on the hard right by refusing to criticize their excesses, and by opposing the war. Vance continues to talk and text with Republicans well outside the increasingly hawkish “Trumpian bubble,” an associate said.

And no other would-be 2028 contender has amassed anything like his book of favors with its elected political class. The New York Times recently detailed the two dozen fundraisers at which he’d raised $60 million. On March 3, he and Trump Jr. headlined a fundraising dinner at the home of an adviser, Arthur Schwartz, that raised $6 million, the record for a sitting vice president, a Republican said.

He’sstumpingin Iowa for Rep. Zach Nunn, a super-competitive race in a swing district — Cook moved it from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.” He campaigned a few months ago for Derrick Van Orden inWisconsin, one of the best Democratic opportunities. And he was in North Carolina, where Republicans are trying toflip a seat.

Vance has problems, of course. While he comfortablyleadsprimary polls, he is nationally veryunpopular— he activates Trump’s haters without carrying Trump’s unique bond with his fans — and could only be elected in the usual scorched earth, closely divided contest. (Fortunately for him, neither party’s primary process seems able to produce a widely acceptable candidate.) If Trump’s numbers continue downward, they could pull the veep (and Rubio) through the floor — nobody wanted a Cheney or Condi campaign in 2008. And Trump is a free radical, and could simply choose someone else, or torch Vance for fun.

Source: Drudge Report