by Nick Giambruno,International Man:

Air power alone is not going to secure Hormuz or remove the Iranian government. Their command-and-control structure is a decentralized mosaic governed by preapproved wartime protocols, with a backup plan for every leader, including three to seven predesignated successors.

Air power could not even dislodge the much smaller and poorer Houthis from Yemen. If the US is serious about having any chance of winning the war it started, it would require a big ground invasion.

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Remember, during the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988)—back when Saddam was a “good guy”—he threw more than 500,000 Iraqi soldiers at Iran, had the backing of both the US and the Soviet Union, and used chemical weapons on a scale not seen since World War I… and he barely made a dent in Iran. Further, the Iran of today is orders of magnitude more powerful than the Iran of the 1980s.

The reality is that if the US is serious about invading Iran, it would likely require total mobilization.

A successful ground invasion of Iran to overthrow the government, occupy the country, and pacify it enough to install a US-friendly puppet regime (i.e., Shah 2.0) would most likely require far more manpower and, in all likelihood, the return of the military draft, which Trump’s press secretary recently refused to rule out.

Even then, a full-scale US ground invasion would offer no guarantee of success. Remember, the US did not even succeed in neighboring Afghanistan, which is far more primitive, poorer, and not as well armed as Iran.

Unlike most other nation states in the Middle East, Iran (known as Persia before 1935) is not an artificial construct. By race, religion, and social history, it is a nation. European bureaucrats didn’t dream up Iran by drawing zigzags on a map. The map reflects the geographic reality of a country with natural, fortress-like mountain borders. In the east, the Roman Empire generally ended where the Persian Empire began.

Iran has powerful friends throughout the Middle East—like the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various Iraqi militias—who are willing to fight.

Source: SGT Report