Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is leading both of his prospective Republican opponents in a new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race — though the result is within the margin of error in either scenario, suggesting a close contest in November.

Thepoll, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research from April 17 to 20, found Talarico leading Sen. John Cornyn by three percentage points, 44% to 41%. The Austin Democrat leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by a margin of five percentage points, 46% to 41%. The survey included 1,865 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points.

TPOR is a nonpartisan public opinion research group directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and in recent cycles, polls have routinely offered rosy projections for the minority party that are not borne out in November.

Still, Democrats are hopeful that President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, paired with backlash from Latino voters over the economy and the White House’s immigration policies, will create an environment more akin to 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of unseating GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.

Closely watched by politicos around the country, Texas’ Senate contest already features the most expensive primary on record, with most of the money coming on the Republican side in support of Cornyn. The Cook Political Report considers the seat to be “likely Republican,” but themessy Senate Republican runoff, Talarico’sfundraising prowessand a wave of Democraticoverperformances in special electionshave both parties eyeing the race with heightened interest.

Cornyn and his supporters have argued the longtime senator would be a stronger general election candidate than Paxton in a cycle in which the national environment is expected to be tough for Republicans. The TPOR poll found little variance in how the two Republicans perform in hypothetical matchups with Democrats.

In both scenarios, Talarico’s support is heavily powered by voters of color, college-educated Texans and independents. Among Black voters, Talarico leads Cornyn by 51 percentage points and Paxton by 56 percentage points. Among Latino voters, Talarico leads Cornyn by a 32-point margin and Paxton by a 27-point margin.

Independents broke heavily for the Democrat in both matchups: Talarico leads 51% to 29% among the group against Cornyn, and 53% to 28% with independents against Paxton.

The poll also found that more voters had a favorable impression of Talarico than those with unfavorable views — 41% to 34%, with the rest saying they were unsure. Meanwhile, Paxton and Cornyn are underwater by 10 and 15 percentage points, respectively, the two lowest favorability marks among all candidates in the survey.

Most polling of the Republican runoff has found it to be a neck-and-neck contest or Paxton leading by single digits. A TPORpollof the runoff, conducted April 6 to 7, found Paxton up by 8 percentage points.

Source: Drudge Report