The United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday that it is formally leaving both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance, delivering a significant shock to the global oil-producing groups at a time when the Iran war has already caused major disruption to energy markets. The decision marks a dramatic break for one of OPEC’s most important and wealthiest members. The UAE has long been a key player in the cartel, but rising frustrations appear to have pushed it to exit.
According to statements from UAE officials, the move comes after growing dissatisfaction with fellow Arab and Gulf states during the ongoing conflict with Iran. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, publicly criticised the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the wider Arab League for what he called their “weakest historical” political and military response to Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping and infrastructure. “The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically,” Gargash said on Monday.
The UAE has faced repeated Iranian threats and attacks on vessels, making it difficult to maintain normal oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas usually passes.
The timing of the UAE's exit from OPEC has come at a time when US President Donald Trump has been critical of OPEC and has made comments about OPEC, claiming it has ‘ripped the world off’ by maintaining an ample price for oil. Trump has also linked military assistance to Gulf states with oil policy, saying the countries are relying on the US to protect them while making money from high energy prices. The war in Iran has previously created a historic energy shock and raised the price of oil around the world, which has put significant pressure on OPEC and its members to continue making and exporting oil at a steady rate.
The exit of the UAE — one of the cartel’s largest and most sophisticated producers — is considered a heavy blow to both OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance (which includes Russia and other non-OPEC producers). It weakens the group’s ability to coordinate production cuts or increases at a time when global energy markets are already highly volatile. This is not the first time the UAE has expressed frustration with OPEC quotas. In the past, it has pushed for higher production allowances to reflect its massive investment in oil infrastructure. However, Tuesday’s announcement represents a full withdrawal rather than just a dispute over quotas.
Questions surrounding OPEC's future unity will be heightened due to the increase in unrest in the region and global energy by virtue of the UAE's decision. OPEC had not provided an immediate response from the Vienna headquarters or other larger members, including Saudi Arabia, at this time. The UAE's move adds another element of instability to an already very unstable environment in worldwide oil industry during a time when the war in Iran is disrupting shipping routes, damaging infrastructure, and forcing major players to reassess their alliances in the region with a resulting impact on world energy supplies.
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