Iran could be heading toward a fresh wave of nationwide unrest - possibly within weeks - as economic pressure intensifies under external and structural strain. A tweet shared by The Iran Watcher cites an "internal warning" by Supreme National Security Council that the system could be able to withstand another six to eight weeks of pressure before protests become "unavoidable".
The warning comes amid mounting stress on Iran's oil-dependent economy as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues.
This will create a cascading effect. The shock hits immediately—cutting off cash flow that the government relies on for subsidies, salaries, and imports.
The consequences are already visible. Reports suggest that Iran's oil revenue losses are reportedly climbing into the hundreds of millions of dollars daily. At the same time, inflation - especially in essentials - has surged sharply, with staples like bread and cooking oil seeing steep price spikes. Industrial sectors linked to energy, including steel and petrochemicals, are facing disruptions, while factory shutdowns and layoffs are becoming more frequent.
The result is a rapidly widening gap between economic pressure and the state’s ability to cushion it.
This is where analysts see a familiar pattern emerging. Economic crises in Iran have historically translated into public unrest, most notably during protests in 2019 and later waves of demonstrations triggered by both political and economic grievances.
The current situation appears more compressed. Unlike earlier crises where pressure built gradually, this phase is marked by simultaneous shocks - rising prices, falling incomes, and shrinking industrial output - all converging at once.
The internal warning cited by the X user suggested that up to 2 million private sector jobs could be at risk by the end of spring. Such a scale of job loss, combined with inflation, significantly raises the risk of widespread discontent.
Importantly, the assessment indicates that even Iran’s own security apparatus may be uncertain about containing such unrest if it erupts at scale.
Iran has reportedly floated a proposal to reopen the strait under certain conditions, including delaying nuclear negotiations. However, the United States has firmly rejected the idea. Speaking to Fox News, US Senator Marco Rubio described Iran’s posture as unacceptable, warning that the regime is attempting to weaponise the waterway. He said, "The Strait of Hormuz is basically the equivalent of an economic nuclear weapon that Iran is trying to use against the world."
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