Saturday’scoordinated attacks across Maliby terrorist-designated Tuareg rebels in the rural north and Islamic terrorists in the urban areas, which were described as “unprecedented” byAl JazeeraandLe Monde, caught the government by surprise.

This is in spite ofWagner and then Russia’s Africa Corpshelping with counterinsurgency. Their cooperation began inlate 2021, a little more than half a year beforeFrench forces departed. Here’s why counterinsurgency remains such a challenge for Mali:

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1. The Tuaregs Have Some Legitimate Grievances

An explanation isn’t an excuse, and nothing can justify allying with (in this case Islamic) terrorists and becoming a Western proxy just like the Kurds before them, but the Tuaregs have some legitimate grievances. They’ve wanted their own state, or at least autonomy, for decades. Their cause can also be perceived through interconnected anti-colonial and national liberation prisms. More Tuareg rebellions are therefore inevitable unless these legitimate grievances are credibly and sustainably addressed.

2. Mali’s HUMINT, SIGINT, and ISR Is Still Very Poor

The fact that these coordinated nationwide attacks happened at all shows that Mali’s human intelligence (HUMINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR, in this case directed towards Tuareg rebels) is still very poor. The first two might not be any fault of its own, however, since its adversaries are thought to prefer non-electronic communication just like the Taliban does, but the ISR element is inexplicable since Russian drones should be able to help with that.

3. Mali’s Vast Geography Hinders Counterinsurgency

Another significant hindrance is the country’s vast geography. The majority is wasteland, which should be relatively easy to monitor but actually isn’t due to Mali’s inexplicable ability to leverage drones to this end. To be sure, it employs some drones and has used them in strikes before, but they’re not being utilized to their full potential. Drones aren’t the be-all and end-all since troops are still required for raids, but the vast geography still makes them difficult to regularly carry out, thus giving foes some reprieve.

Source: Global Research