According to the International Energy Agency (IEA),the disruptive effects on global energy suppliescaused by the U.S.-Israel-Iran war is bigger than the oil shocks of the 1970s and the 2022 loss of Russian pipeline gas.
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Many countries are discussing alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, but in reality, all of these alternatives are likely to fail. The main reason is the vulnerability of such infrastructure—oil pipelines running from the Gulf to places like Syria or Turkey can be easily targeted by drones.
Modern warfare is increasingly driven by drones and artificial intelligence. We have seen this clearly in conflicts such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as confrontations involving Hezbollah and Israel, and tensions between the United States and Iran.
The best solution is to reach a political and diplomatic agreement that satisfies all parties. The alternative solutions being discussed are likely to fail for two main reasons: first, their extremely high cost; and second, the significant security risks, whether from drone attacks or sabotage operations targeting these pipelines.
Athough, it is clear that some regional countries may benefit from the closure of the Strait for their own interests, including Turkey, Israel, Syria, and others.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the structural fragility of oil export systems across the Gulf region and Iraq, where energy flows depend almost entirely on this critical maritime chokepoint. The disruption has accelerated efforts to identify and develop alternative export routes capable of absorbing stranded oil and gas supplies.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped dramatically—by more than 90% in some periods—with complete halts on certain days. The consequences have been immediate and severe: oil prices surged from around $70 to approximately $120 per barrel, while European natural gas prices doubled from €30 to as high as €70.
The Strait typically handles about 21 million barrels of oil per day—roughly one-fifth of global consumption—and about 25% of global LNG trade. Its closure has triggered rising shipping and insurance costs, further straining global supply chains and intensifying inflationary pressures across energy, food, and fertilizer markets.
Source: Global Research
