Executives from Europe's powerhouse chemical industry have delivered a dire verdict on the European Union's ambitious Green Deal, predicting the sector's outright disappearance if current policies persist. Speaking at the Cefic annual conference in Brussels, CEOs including BASF's Martin Brudermüller and Covestro's Markus Steilemann declared that mounting regulatory burdens, skyrocketing energy costs, and uncompetitive global positioning threaten to wipe out a vital economic pillar employing over 1.2 million people across the continent.
The alarm stems from the EU's relentless push toward net-zero emissions by 2050, encapsulated in the Green Deal's cascade of directives. Chemical production, inherently energy-intensive and reliant on fossil feedstocks, faces draconian carbon pricing under the Emissions Trading System (ETS), alongside mandates for renewable hydrogen and circular economy mandates. Industry leaders highlighted that electricity prices in Europe remain three to five times higher than in the United States, where abundant shale gas has fueled a manufacturing renaissance, drawing investments away from the Old Continent.
Brudermüller, whose German giant BASF recently announced plant closures and a shift of production to China and the US, painted a grim picture: "Without a competitive framework, the European chemical industry will disappear." Data from Cefic underscores the peril, projecting a 20-30% contraction in output by 2030 if trends continue, with deindustrialization already evident in slashed capacities for fertilizers, plastics, and specialty chemicals essential for automotive, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture sectors.
Contextualizing the outcry, the CEOs pointed to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intended to level the playing field but criticized as insufficient against subsidies in China—now the world's top chemical producer—and lax environmental standards elsewhere. Analysis from Boston Consulting Group echoes these fears, estimating €200 billion in lost revenues and 500,000 job losses by decade's end, exacerbating Europe's energy crisis post-Ukraine invasion and the fallout from weaning off Russian gas.
Reactions have been swift but polarized. EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra acknowledged the challenges, pledging "technology-neutral" support via the Net-Zero Industry Act, yet executives dismissed it as too little, too late, urging a policy rethink to prioritize affordability over ideology. As global competitors surge ahead, the chemical sector's plight symbolizes broader tensions in Europe's green transition: noble goals clashing with economic reality, potentially leaving the bloc as a high-cost museum of industrial might.
