Despite the temporary ceasefire, the aggression by the United States and Israel against Iran threatens to plunge 32 million people in 162 countries around the world into poverty, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) warned in a policy note. Although the risk is concentrated in the nations directly affected by the conflict and those that depend on imported energy, the analysis predicts a significant long-term negative impact on the poorest countries, even those farthest from the war.

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The effects of the conflict are shifting from an acute phase to a prolonged phase despite the over two-week pause in hostilities. The longer this situation continues, the greater the risk of an accelerated rise in poverty in the most vulnerable countries, including those in the Gulf, Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and small island developing states.

“For these countries, the crisis forces impossible trade-offs between stabilizing prices today and funding health, education, and jobs tomorrow,” said UNDPAdministrator Alexander De Croo.

Adding to this scenario is another projection from the UN World Food Programme (WFP): if the war continues until June and oil prices remain high, up to 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity in 2026, raising the global total above its current record level of 673 million.

According to the Rome-based organization, the strait’s closure puts supply chains and humanitarian operations on the brink of the most serious disruption since the COVID-19 pandemic, when unprecedented disruptions occurred, including border closures, the collapse of air traffic, and the paralysis of supply chains.

This critical situation is explained first by the geographical space in which the US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic is taking place, a nerve center of an important energy source, such as oil, with implications for the whole world.

The price of oil affects the whole world and, of course, it affects the countries that depend on it the most, as well as those with lower incomes or less development. This is because when the price of crude oil rises, these nations have to pass the increase on to local costs and prices, which affects people’s standard of living and income capacity. In addition, oil affects other costs and derived products, which also affect the daily lives of many people.

Advanced countries are also affected by these fluctuations. However, they usually have the means to cope with price increases and continue to supply themselves, even if the increases are very high. Advanced countries generally have the resources to pay, to buy foreign currency to cope with higher costs without problems, or to borrow in foreign currency if companies require it, for example, to acquire the most expensive inputs.

Source: Global Research