Russian officials have repeatedly warned that any NATO state allowing Ukrainian drones to use its airspace for strikes on Russian territory could become a legitimate military target, raising urgent questions about the likelihood of such retaliation. The article examines Moscow’s stated legal justifications, the deterrent power of NATO’s collective defense, and the specific thresholds that could trigger escalation thus while airstrikes remain improbable in the near term, the risk cannot be dismissed entirely.

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In early April 2026, the Russian leadership reinforced its uncompromising stance through Federation Council SpeakerValentina Matviyenko,whodeclaredon Olga Skabeyeva’s prominent talk show that Moscow will show no flexibility toward European Union nations that allow their airspace to be used for Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.

“We are getting new terrorist attacks, attacks on our energy infrastructure, civilian facilities and people,” Matviyenko stated. “And we will not be flexible with everyone, we will not succumb to the threats of the Europeans or anyone else. We have issued very harsh warnings to these countries.”

She then offered a specific example of Russian pressure yielding results, noting that Lithuania had already publicly denied giving Ukraine permission to fly its drones. Matviyenko went on,

“That is, we shook them up… and they realized that if they continued, they would be our legitimate targets, because Russia was being attacked from their territory. They understood that. I think they’re going to crawl away now. They won’t say it out loud, but they’ll crawl away.”

Then on April 10, a joint statement by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuaniadismissedthe accusations entirely, stating they considered this whole situation as Russia’s disinformation campaign. This was followed on April 16, when Russian Security Council SecretarySergey ShoiguformallyremindedFinland and the Baltic states of Russia’s right to self defense, citing a recent increase in incidents involving Ukrainian drones allegedly striking Russia via their airspace. Shoigu argued that

“this can happen in two cases: either Western air defense systems are extremely ineffective, as was already the case during the events in the Middle East, or these states are deliberately providing their airspace, thus becoming active accomplices in the aggression against Russia.“

He then invoked the legal mechanism for retaliation, stating that

“in the second case, under international law, Article 51 of the UN Charter regarding the inherent right of states to self-defense in the event of an armed attack comes into force.”

Source: Global Research