FRIDAY MIDDAY:The first numbers forLionsgate‘sMichaelare in and it’s shaping up to be a$35M-$40MFriday, which includes those $12.6M previews. The Friday through Sunday range is$85M-$95M, and there’s a path to higher, it just boils down whether this is fan-frontloaded.
“Something special is happening, people are dancing in the theaters,” says one source close to the film.
Easily that start is the best for Lionsgate post Covid bestingJohn Wick: Chapter 4($73.8M), and of course that completes the record opening for a musical biopic previously held by Universal’sStraight Outta Compton($60.2M).
Looking back at 2018’sBohemian Rhapsody,also produced byMichaelproducer Graham King (who clearly knows how to dramatize and navigate complex performers’ stories for the big screen, working feasibly with their estates), that pic posted a Friday/previews figure of $18.8M and then stayed even in its Saturday with $18.8M for a $51M North American debut.Watch on Deadline
Social media analytics firm RelishMix measured 417.9MMichaelfollowers across TikTok, YouTube, X, Facebook, and Instagram, which is very strong and 2.2X above music bio-pic genre norms and such musical biopics (pre-opening) asElvis(278.6M),Bohemian Rhapsody(242.1M),Rocketman(113.5M) but also biopics likeHouse of Gucci(407M). Jaafar Jackson’s growing social network is activated — and has built to 500K fans — plus Nia Long at 10M, Laura Harrier at 1.5M, Coleman Domingo at 1.5M and Juliano Krue Valdi at 1.4M.
Reports RelishMix, “Convo runs positive forMichael,with fans treating trailers like a time machine and the casting as emotional insurance; ‘I literally just got shivers and goosebumps.’ Legacy worship is loud and specific, framing MJ as untouchable cultural capital; “No matter what anyone says about him… he changed the world’ and ‘Long live the KING of Music and Entertainment.’ Craft nerds clock the mimicry, voice, and movement like a performance audit; ‘The attention to detail in his movements is incredible’ and ‘That voice is spot on. I’m impressed.’ The family angle reads as authenticity and brand safety at once; ‘Feels really fitting they have his nephew playing MJ’ and ‘He’s a clone of Michael.’ Biopic comps show up as upside signals and expectations management; ‘I lovedBohemian Rhapsody‘ and ‘as amazing as theAmerican Dreammovie.'”
Overall, a strong weekend with spring’s holdovers maintaining wind in their sales despiteMichael‘s moonwalking at the B.O.
2.Super Mario Galaxy Movie(Uni) 3,732 theaters Fri $4.6M 3-day $20.5M (-44%), Total $385.7M/Wk 4
3.Project Hail Mary(Amz) 3,510 theaters, Fri $3M 3-day $12M (-41%), Total $304.2M/Wk 6
4.Lee Cronin’s The Mummy(NL/WB) 3,304 theaters, Fri $1.5M, 3-day $5.1M (-62%), Total $22.9M/Wk 2
Source: Drudge Report
