A Russian pollster recently discovered that “More Russians Perceive Poland To Be An Enemy Than They Do Any Other Country”, yet it turns out that their country’s top adversary in Europe is actually France, which plans to carry out regular nuclear drills with Poland aimed against Russia and Belarus.Per Polish media, “French nuclear warheads will not be permanently deployed in Poland, but they will periodically be deployed under Rafale aircraft, which will participate in joint exercises with the Polish Air Force.”
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“Polish aircraft will identify targets that, if necessary, can be attacked by French aircraft equipped with nuclear-tipped missiles…[Polish cruise] missiles are hypothetically intended to target so-called high-value targets in the St. Petersburg area.” Moreover, “The French will simulate the use of nuclear warheads during the exercise. Rafale B aircraft are capable of flying from France to the Budapest-Kaliningrad line and practicing attacks on targets in Russia and Belarus.”
This was agreed upon during FrenchPresident Emmanuel Macron’srecent meeting with PolishPrime Minister Donald Tuskin Gdansk where theytold the mediathat they discussed nuclear cooperation. Gdansk is Tusk’s hometown but it’s also ominously the place where World War II broke out. France’s planned nuclear drills might come as a shock to casual observers, but Macron has been talking about thissince last March, which in turn prompted Tusk to do the same. Here are some background briefings:
In short, France is once again in a “friendly competition” with Germany for leadership of Europe, to which end the eastward extension of its nuclear umbrella is envisaged giving it a strategic edge. Likewise, Poland envisagesleading Central & Eastern Europe, butgrowing concerns about the US’ reliabilityled to it flirting with nukes. Those tworealizedthat their interests are best served through the nuclear partnership that was just agreed to, which also shifts the burden for containing Russia away from the US.
The trigger for tangibly setting these plans into motion was Trump’s rejection of Putin’s proposal to extend the New START for another year, thus dismantling their last arms control pact. The risk of aglobal nuclear arms racespiked, and coupled with the US’ renewed focus on West Asia and Trump’shintsthat he’ll hang NATO out to dry in a war with Russia for not helping him open Hormuz, France and Poland decided to take the plunge. The European security architecture is now indelibly altered.
France thus became Russia’s top adversary in Europe since any crisis with theBaltic States, such as if RussiainterceptsUkrainian drones over their airspace, could now lead to a French-Russian crisis with nuclear stakes if Poland rushes to their rescue and Paris extends its nuclear umbrella further eastward to cover its ally. Through these means, Ukraine can now spark a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis at any time, but it might hold off till all players have time to practice and perfect this escalation sequence.
This article was originally published on theauthor’s Substack.
Andrew Korybkois an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
Source: Global Research
