Inan articleon Wednesday, we highlighted a Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (“MHRA”) paper that analysed the results of their active monitoring system. The results showed that 1 in 7 people who took a covid vaccine experienced severe adverse reactions.

However, it was not written as a safety paper; it was written as a description of the digital platform used to collect the data, Dr. Clare Craig says. “The numbers buried inside it deserved rather more attention,” she writes and drills down into the numbers.

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ByDr. Clare Craig, as published byThe Daily Scepticon 21 April 2026

One in seven. That is the proportion of people in the MHRA’s own actively recruited surveillance cohort who reported a medically serious adverse reaction following covidvaccination. Over half reported at least one reaction of any kind. The data were collected between 2020 and 2022. They were not published until September 2025, and only then becauseCheryl Grainger, through a Freedom of Information (“FoI”) request and subsequent Information Commissioner’s Office (“ICO”) appeal, forced it out.

The paper that eventually appeared, in the journalDrug Safety, was not written as a safety paper. It was written as a description of the digital platform used to collect the data – a methods paper published five months after Dame June Raine left as chief executive, nearly three years after the data were locked. The actual adverse reaction rates are reported but not analysed. The one stratification that could determine whether those rates are real was not performed.

The numbers buried inside it deserved rather more attention.

The Yellow Card Vaccine Monitor (“YCVM”) was the MHRA’s premium data source. It was one of fourpillarsof its covid vaccine safety surveillance strategy. Unlike the passive Yellow Card scheme, where people report voluntarily and sporadically, the YCVM actively recruited people and followed them up at set intervals. The MHRA itself described it as atoolto “rapidly detect, confirm, characterise and quantify new risks.”

Of the 30,281 individuals who reported receiving a vaccination, 15,764 (52.1%) reported at least one adverse reaction. 4,134 (13.7%) reported a reaction classified as medically serious under the MedDRA system. This is a regulatory classification that includes events deemed medically significant by an internal MHRA panel and is broader than the lay meaning of “serious,” but not a trivial threshold. It encompasses hospitalisation, disability, life-threatening outcomes and death, but also other events judged clinically important.

However, the 13.7% might include people who volunteered for the monitor becausethey had been injured. The MHRA did not exclude people signing up afterthey had their vaccine.

Source: SGT Report