AUS Special Forces soldierhas been arrested by federal authorities after allegedly making more than $400,000 (£297,160) in profits from prediction market bets onPolymarketlinked to the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, according to sources familiar with the case.
Prosecutors are investigating whether the trades were based on classified information from a covert military operation, marking what officials describe as a rare insider trading-style case involving a prediction market platform.
Federal investigators say the soldier, a member of US Special Forces, was directly involved in a classified operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife during a US-backed mission in January 2026.
According to the sources, the operation formed part of a wider mission referred to as Operation Absolute Resolve, which was carried out overnight with the involvement of US law enforcement and military personnel.
Authorities allege that shortly before the public announcement of Maduro's capture, the soldier placed a series of bets on Polymarket predicting the Venezuelan leader's removal from office and the possibility of US military action in Venezuela.
Investigators believe the soldier opened a Polymarket account in December 2025 and placed approximately $33,933 (£25,208) across multiple prediction contracts related to geopolitical events in Venezuela, according toABC News, citing sources familiar with the investigation.
The most significant wager, a $32,537 (£24,171) bet that Maduro would be out of office by 31 January 2026, reportedly returned a profit of more than $400,000 (£297,160) after the outcome was resolved following Maduro's capture.
Other positions included bets on whether the United States would carry out military action in Venezuela. The trades have drawn scrutiny due to their timing, which occurred just hours before the official announcement of the operation's outcome.
The US Department of Justice has launched an investigation into whether the soldier used non-public government information to place the trades, potentially violating federal laws governing misuse of confidential information.
While prediction markets like Polymarket are primarily regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, prosecutors are reportedly examining whether existing statutes, including provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act, can be applied to cases involving government employees.
Source: International Business Times UK
