The US Department of Justice has unsealed an indictment against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an active-duty US Army soldier, accusing him of using classified government information to make more than $400,000 through prediction market bets tied to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
According to the indictment, Van Dyke was part of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” the military operation that led to Maduro’s capture in early January 2026. Investigators say that while working on the mission, he had access to sensitive, nonpublic information, including the timing and scope of the operation, and used that knowledge to his advantage on Polymarket, a platform where users wager on real-world events.
Federal authorities allege that he placed bets predicting outcomes such as Maduro being removed from power, US forces entering Venezuela, and potential military escalation, all before those events were publicly known. When the operation was announced hours after Maduro’s capture, those bets paid off.
Officials say the case highlights a growing concern around prediction markets and the potential misuse of insider or classified information.
Van Dyke, 38, is stationed at Fort Bragg in Fayetteville, North Carolina, and had signed nondisclosure agreements as part of his military role, committing not to share or misuse classified information.
Prosecutors say that between late December 2025 and early January 2026, he placed around 13 bets totaling roughly $33,000 on Polymarket, all tied to developments involving Venezuela and Maduro. These included predictions that Maduro would be out of office by January 31 and that U.S. forces would be active in Venezuela within the same timeframe.
In the early hours of January 3, US forces captured Maduro and his wife in Caracas. Soon after the operation was publicly confirmed by US President Donald Trump, the prediction markets settled, and Van Dyke’s bets reportedly brought in about $409,000 in profit.
Authorities say he didn’t stop there. After cashing out, Van Dyke allegedly moved much of the money into a foreign cryptocurrency vault and later into a brokerage account. He is also accused of trying to cover his tracks by requesting the deletion of his Polymarket account and changing associated email details.
He now faces multiple charges, including fraud, unlawful use of government information, and violations of the Commodity Exchange Act. If convicted, he could face decades in prison, though any sentence will ultimately be decided by a judge.
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