Russia could be ready to start a conflict with NATO within a year of the war in Ukraine coming to an end, with the aim of creating political division in the alliance, according to Dutch military intelligence service MIVD. The spy agency said Moscow could rebuild enough combat power within a year of the fighting ending in Ukraine to mount a regional challenge to NATO under the most favourable conditions for the Kremlin.

However, the MIVD stressed that a conventional war betweenRussiaand NATO is "virtually out of the question" while Moscow remains heavily involved inUkraine. Rather than seeking to defeat the alliance outright, the report warned that Russia could instead attempt limited territorial gains in an effort to expose divisions between NATO members.The intelligence agency said this could even involve the threat of nuclear weapons use. The annual report described Russia as the most serious threat facing Europe. MIVD Director Vice Adm. Peter Reesink said: "Russia poses the greatest and most direct threat to peace and stability in Europe, and thus to our national security and our interests."

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The report said the war in Ukraine is part of a wider Russian effort to reshape Europe's security order and create a more multipolar world in which Moscow is one of the leading powers.

According to the MIVD, Russia sees liberal democratic values as a threat to the Kremlin's internal stability, giving the conflict in Ukraine an "existential" character.

The report warned that many of the safeguards which existed during the Cold War, including arms control agreements and structured dialogue between rival powers, have largely disappeared.

The MIVD said worsening relations between Western nations have left Europe more exposed, particularly "where rules become blurred and power becomes increasingly determinant."

It added that Russia's use of methods below the level of open warfare, including cyberattacks, sabotage and covert activity, creates "a real risk of unintended and therefore difficult-to-control escalation."

The MIVD also said uncertainty surrounding American security policy could influence Moscow's calculations.

Source: Daily Express :: World Feed