Nobel Prize-winning physicist David Gross has provided a sobering timeline for the potential end of modern civilisation, citing the escalating risks of nuclear war.
The 2004 Nobel laureate estimates that humanity may have roughly 35 years remaining before facing existential catastrophe from nuclear conflict.
In an interview, Gross detailed his assessment based on probability calculations similar to radioactive half-life models. He noted that after the Cold War, estimates put the annual chance of nuclear war at one percent. However, he believes the figure is now closer to two percent.
Chilling warning from Nobel physicist as date is set for humanity's final destructionhttps://t.co/WKhFHWcIs3
“Even after the Cold War ended, when we had strategic arms control treaties, all of which have disappeared, there were estimates that there was a one percent chance of nuclear war every year,” Gross said.
He continued, “I feel it’s not a rigorous estimate that the chances are more likely two percent. So that’s a one-in-50 chance every year. The expected lifetime, in the case of two percent per year, is about 35 years.”
Gross pointed to deteriorating global conditions as justification for his higher estimate. “Things have gotten so much worse in the last 30 years, as you can see every time you read the newspaper,” he stated.
He highlighted ongoing conflicts and nuclear proliferation. There are now nine nuclear powers, complicating arms control significantly. “Even three is infinitely more complicated than two,” Gross observed.
Recent developments include the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, with no major nuclear arms-control agreements signed in the past decade.
Gross also raised concerns about advancing technology, particularly automation and artificial intelligence in weapons systems.
Source: modernity
