The optimism that helped list the S&P on 11 of the prior 12 days, and the Nasdaq on 13 consecutive days until Monday's modest pullback, is back - because one can apparently draw the same exact event for 3 weeks now - and sending US equity futures higher again on signs that Iran will attend talks with the US, while the US president said it’s “highly unlikely” that he’d extend the truce. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, rebounding from Monday’s decline, and supposed by solid earnings, the AI narrative and positioning even as the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% with most Mag 7 names higher: AMZN +2.8%, META +0.6%, AAPL -0.4%. Apple announced its new CEO after yesterday’s close (hardware chief John Ternus will become the CEO effective September 1st); AMZN announced it will invest another $25bn in Anthropic with Anthropic committing to spending more than $100bn over the next 10yr on AWS. 10Y yields added 1bps to 4.26%. Commodities are mostly lower: Copper -0.5%, Silver -1.0%, WTI crude was flat at $87.60 per barrel, reversing a modest loss. Retail sales and Warsh’s confirmation hearing will be in focus later.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher after the iPhone maker said hardware chief John Ternus will be its next CEO, with current leader Tim Cook moving to the role of executive chairman. AMZN rises 3% after the cloud-computing and e-commerce giant said it is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic and may inject $20 billion more over time (META +0.5%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.2%).

In corporate news, Apple CEO Tim Cook will hand the reins to hardware boss John Ternus later this year. Ternus will face challenges even as he maintains Apple’s device empire — needing to take chances, enter new product categories and find the company’s footing in AI. Elsewhere in tech, Amazon is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic and may inject $20 billion more over time, a deal that strengthens ties in in an increasingly competitive AI race. The deal was struck at a valuation of $350 billion, not including the new funding, Anthropic said.

Sentiment rose overnight even though Trump signaled that a ceasefire extension is unlikely, while Iran hasn’t confirmed who, if anyone, will travel to the Pakistani capital for peace talks. Strategists continue to look outside of geopolitics, with JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas raising his year-end S&P 500 price target to 7,600 on the back of strong tech and AI earnings. But for Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, the market is showing signs of “irrational exuberance 2.0,” with the strength of the recent equity rally defying logic and largely based on the belief in a “POTUS Put.”

The US is waiting to see if Iran will take part in a second round of ceasefire talks before the truce expires on Wednesday. President Donald Trump said his vice president, JD Vance, was ready to leave for negotiations in Pakistan. Tehran has yet to confirm its attendance.

Speaking to Bloomberg News in a phone interview on Monday, Trump said he would not be “rushed into making a bad deal” and that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports would stay in place until an agreement is reached. Additionally, the president said a ceasefire extension beyond late Wednesday was unlikely.

“Traders will understandably be focused on events in Pakistan, with talks expected to resume ahead of tomorrow’s deadline,” said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

Solid early earnings are also helping. The Citi US earnings revisions index has moved back into positive territory after two negative weekly prints. Of the 49 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 12% have missed.

The Federal Reserve’s future is also on the minds of traders, as Kevin Warsh for his confirmation hearing. Warsh is Trump’s pick to replace the central bank’s current chair, Jerome Powell. It could be one of the most contentious such hearings in many decades. Warsh, in prepared remarks, vowed to protect the Fed’s independence if he were confirmed to the role.

“We think that the appointment of Kevin Warsh is unlikely to significantly adjust the balance of the Federal Open Market Committee – or, in any case, not to the extent that it would lead to any non-key rate cuts that are not justified by the US economic situation and the institution’s mandate,” CIC economists including Adrien Régnier-Laurent wrote in a note.

Source: ZeroHedge News