The West Asia crisis began with direct attacks. The United States and Israel carried out joint strikes against Iran on February 28, killing the country's Supreme Leader,Ayatollah Ali Khameneiand many top officials. The fighting rapidly escalated, and then a short-term fragile ceasefire. Now, as that ceasefire nears its expiry, fresh tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled diplomacy are raising a bigger question: Is theUS-Iran-Israel conflictslipping into a frozen phase rather than moving toward a decisive end?
The prospect of a second round of talks between the US and Iran is still uncertain after first round of negotiations in Islamabad failed to produce an agreement. While US President Donald Trump has offered mixed messages about the path ahead for the war, declaring that he was in no rush to end the conflict; Iran has declared that it would not negotiate in the face of threats.
Trump has stated that he is "unlikely" to renew the ceasefire that is set to expire on Wednesday. Iran Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf said that the Islamic Republic has been preparing "to reveal new cards on the battlefield."
The second round of talks between the US and Iran was thrown into doubt by the US Navy’s seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship. The US Navy boarded and seized 'Touska' near the Strait of Hormuz following a 6-hour standoff. The United States said that it fired on the ship and seized it because it had crossed the blockade line after ignoring multiple warnings. This was the first such interception since the US naval blockade of Iranian ports began last week. Iran has called for an "immediate release of the Iranian vessel, its sailors, crew and their families."
There are likely three issues that are blocking a deal between Iran and the US. They are mainly the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and control over the critical waterway; the fate of Iran’s uranium stockpiles; and a curb on uranium enrichment.
At this given time, neither the US nor Iran look committed to a comprehensive solution to the crisis. The first round of talks failed to reach an agreement, as Iran refused to compromise on its nuclear program, according to US Vice President JD Vance, who headed the negotiations.
Notably, the negotiations that led to the multilateral 2015 deal on Iran’s nuclear program – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – took 20 months to conclude. Trump withdrew from the agreement three years later, calling it a "horrible one-sided deal." A look at the US-Iran history suggests that a quick solution is unlikely any soon, The Conversation analysed, suggesting that even if an agreement is reached, this could still be headed to a frozen conflict, and not a comprehensive peace agreement.
A frozen conflict does not mean peace. Instead, it refers to a situation where active, large-scale fighting subsides, but the underlying tensions remain unresolved. It is below the threshold of full-scale combat and typically occurs when a comprehensive political agreement cannot be reached.
US President Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy has shown that he does not treat ceasefires as pauses for negotiations to agree on substantive political issues. Rather, he declares a ceasefire as a US success, then moves on to the next global issue. It was evident in the case of Israel-Hamas ceasefire and Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire.
In such conflicts, ceasefire is not the end, but a resolution to the issues.
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