A sharp surge in prediction market odds has reignited debate in Washington over whether Donald Trump could face a third impeachment, an unprecedented scenario for a sitting US president.
The spike, driven by trading activity on aregulated political betting platform, reflects growing uncertainty surrounding the president's legal and political exposure amid ongoing scrutiny of his conduct in multiple investigations and renewed partisan tensions in Congress.
Odds that President Donald Trump could face impeachment again climbed to 72% on the US-based exchange Kalshi, according to a public post shared by the platform on 20 April 2026.
The figure represents a record high for the contract, which allows traders to speculate on whether a specific political event will occur. Kalshi operates under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, making it one of the few federally regulated venues for event contracts tied to political outcomes.
In its post, Kalshi noted a surge in trading volume, indicating heightened interest in the possibility of impeachment proceedings.
Prediction markets are not polls and do not forecast outcomes with certainty. However, they can react faster than traditional polling to political developments, often capturing real-time sentiment among politically engaged investors and observers.
BREAKING: Odds Trump is impeached again hits 72% — an all-time high.pic.twitter.com/zCbfNxrrCo
Under the United States Constitution, impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House of Representatives, followed by a two-thirds majority in the Senate for conviction and removal from office.
Trump has already been impeached twice during his presidency, in 2019 and 2021, making him the only US president to face impeachment proceedings on two separate occasions. Both efforts ultimately failed to secure a conviction in the Senate.
A third impeachment would raise complex constitutional and political questions. Legal scholars remain divided over aspects of impeachment proceedings, although historical precedent exists in the 1876 impeachment of former Secretary of War William W Belknap, who resigned before proceedings concluded.
Source: International Business Times UK
