TheCharlotte HornetsandOrlando Magicare one game away from the playoffs and one game away from the offseason, which is usually a good recipe for ugly basketball.
That’s why my best bet for Friday’s second round of the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament isUNDER 218.5 (-110).
This handicap starts with the stars, and neither one inspired much confidence in the first round.
Sure, Hornets PGLaMelo Ballhit the game-winning layup at the end of overtime in Charlotte’s 127-126 win over the Miami Heat Tuesday. Ball took 31 shots, went 2-for-16 from 3-point range, and forced way too much offense in a must-win game. Great moment. Big shot. Still: Bad process.
That’s inexcusable from your point guard in a must-win when you have forwardsMiles BridgesandBrandon Miller, and SGKon Knueppelin their starting 5. LaMelo made the highlight play, but a lot of the stuff before that was shot-chucking disguised as hero ball.
Then there was Magic forwardPaolo Banchero, who was somehow worse than his 22-point box score suggests in Orlando’s 109-97 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Banchero shot 7-of-22 from the field, went 0-for-5 from deep, finished with 6 turnovers and 4 assists, and posted the worst plus-minus in the game at -17. He looked sloppy, indecisive, and completely out of rhythm.
For a guy who dominates the ball as much as he does, that is a huge red flag going into another elimination game. That’s really the core of the handicap here: Both teams are leaning heavily on ball-dominant stars who were wildly inefficient in their previous games.
Orlando’s half-court offense was especially brutal. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Magic scored just 80.2 points per 100 half-court plays against the Sixers Wednesday. That number is hideous. For context, it would be NBA-worst offensive efficiency over a full season, and Philadelphia was only 16th in defensive rating during the regular season.
Charlotte wasn’t nearly that bad, but the Hornets weren’t exactly humming either. They scored 99.0 points per 100 half-court plays against Miami Tuesday, which ranks in just the 57th percentile league-wide.
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