For eight months, every Iran headline has come with the same two-way trade: peace deal on Monday, "locked and loaded" by Friday.
This week was no exception: Monday, November 9 was the date that a handful of media reports had penciled in for the resumption of major US strikes (a new moon, three carriers on station, the midterms safely in the rearview mirror). Instead, President Trump walked out of a meeting with Qatar's prime minister and told reporters that military action against Iran does not seem necessary at this point, one day after telling CNN that new bombing is "highly unlikely" if talks progress. Stocks responded with an everything rally, with the S&P closing up 2.4%, while Brent slid back below $95, extending what was already its biggest weekly drop since the Covid crash.
And yet, in the same 72 hours the US carried out what Trump called "minor" strikes on Qeshm Island (which have continued since), the IRGC reported three more tankers ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz (with more tankers catching fire through Friday), a Houthi missile damaged an Aramco tower in Riyadh, S
