While all attention is currently on Iran (and theenergy impactof actions overseas), today's CPI (for February) should not be affected by the recent surge in WTI (but March's data definitely will be)...
Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected), lifting prices by 2.4% YoY (unchanged from the prior month at the lowest since May 2025)...
The disinflation trend is still your friend as the terrors of tariff-flation remain non-evident, much to the disappointment of establishment economists.
Core Services remain the biggest driver of CPI with Core Goods relatvely unmoved (and Energy starting to pick up)...
CPI rose 0.3% MoM after rising 0.2% MoM in January, and in line with estimates. Over the last 12 months, CPI rose 2.4%, also in line with estimates and unchanged from January.
The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in February and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase.The food index increased 0.4% over the month as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose 0.3% . The index for energy also increased in February, rising 0.6 percent.
Core CPI also met expectations with a +0.2% MoM move, leaving prices up 2.45% YoY - the lowest since March 2021
Core CPI Services are also the main driver of Core CPI (but are seeing significant disinflation)...
Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM in February; Over the last 12 months, core CPI rose 2.5%, also in line with estimates and unchanged from January.
Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, apparel, household furnishings and operations, airline fares, and education. Conversely, the indexes for communication, used cars and trucks, motor vehicle insurance, and personal care were among the major indexes that decreased in February.
Source: ZeroHedge News
