The House is done. Or at least the market thinks so.
Going into tonight, Polymarket traders give Democrats a 96% chance of taking the House and 74% for the Senate, the highest Democratic Senate odds since the market opened, and as of 7:17am ET this morning the Democratic sweep contract was trading at 77%.
Which is why Goldman, in its "Midterms Preview" email this morning (available to pro subs), says the only part of tonight that can really surprise anyone is the upper chamber:
A Democratic House looks largely priced, with the Senate representing the main source of election related surprise. With sentiment, positioning and leverage already significantly lower following recent derisking, the bigger question for markets may be whether the election acts as a clearing event and supports a broader rerisking in equities.
In other words, everyone is watching the House count, and the money is riding on the Senate. Regular readers know we've been tracking the blue-wave odds since they were a coin flip, from our warning back in May that electric bills could be the 2026 elec
