Weather forecasting website Severe Weather Europe warns that the Arctic polar vortex could undergo a sudden stratospheric warming in early November, potentially the earliest on record. The rapid warming could weaken, displace, or split the vortex, then send Arctic air into the northern US and parts of Europe in the following weeks.
🚨 This has never happened before.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanWeather) October 29, 2026
The Super El Niño has triggered an unprecedented early November stratospheric warming event (SSW) and wind reversal.
100% chance forecast. We must prepare for weather and climate events that were otherwise impossible until now. pic.twitter.com/RJez6fld0W
"The Polar Vortex is heading toward a record early disruption," Severe Weather Europe wrote in a report on Wednesday.
Severe Weather Europe continued, "An event this early is uncharted territory. With a Super El Niño already shaping the weather pattern, the impacts are harder to track than in mid-winter. But forecasts already show the first indirect links to the split cores, with cooler trends developing over parts of Europe and the eastern United States in coming weeks."
Arctic data dashboard Polar Vortex shows that all 50 members of the ECMWF ensemble forecast project a reversal of winds a
