People like sh*tting onTHE PLAYERS Championshipfor being a poser because it's referred to as "golf's fifth major" by some, and it's not a major. Yet, annually, THE PLAYERS might have a tougher field than the Masters and TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, is a major-level course.
Regardless, THE PLAYERS is one of my favorite tournaments because it produces thrilling finishes and features the best players on the PGA TOUR. World No. 1Scottie Schefflerand No. 2Rory McIlroyhave won here the last three years and five of the last six PLAYERS Championships have been won by one stroke or in a playoff.
Good trending form has been predictive for the last six winners since THE PLAYERS got moved to March in 2019. Granted, all six are major champions, and Rory and Scottie are the top two players in the world, so they just win regardless. Either way, I still want to bet guys who are playing well because golfers don’t "find their games" at this course.
I'm using the same gambling strategy for THE PLAYERS that I've used all season: Betting to profit 20 units (u) on my outrights and backing those picks up with placement wagers. Is it working? Kind of. I did lose 6.09u at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, but my2026 PGA TOURbankroll is still+1.16u. Here are myhorses for the courseandOne-And-Donepick for TPC Sawgrass.
The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.
I know the betting odds probably overrateTommy Lad. His only PGA TOUR win was the 30-man TOUR Championship this past August. But I haven't lost money on him since I started betting golf a few years ago, so I don't have any beef with Fleetwood.
More importantly, I found a good number after he struggled at Bay Hill last week, finishing 49th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Otherwise, it's not like Tommy is playing badly. In his other two starts this year, Fleetwood finished T4 at Pebble Beach and T7 at the Genesis Invitational, both of which are "signature events".
Furthermore, his game is a perfect fit for this place. Tommy is a precise ball-striker with an excellent short-game. His biggest weakness is distance, or lack thereof, off-the-tee, but accuracy is more important at TPC Sawgrass. The Englishman has only missed the cut once in eight appearances here. He finished T14 last year at THE PLAYERS and T7 and T5 in 2018-19.
Also, Le Golf National is my favorite comp course to TPC Sawgrass, and Fleetwood won the 2017 Open de France and a silver medal at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics there. Ultimately,Tommy Ladhas the game to win THE PLAYERS. He won the 2025 TOUR Championship, led the 2025 Ryder Cup in points, and is rightfully third in the Official World Golf Rankings.
The 2021 Masters champion ranks second in my "Course Fit" model at Betsperts Golf behind Scheffler, which blends course history, performance at comp courses, total strokes gained (SG) in Florida over the last three years, total SG at difficult courses with a lot of water danger, and SG: Putting on Poa Trivialis, which is the greens grass of TPC Sawgrass.
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