Kalshi had Flávio Bolsonaro at roughly 85% to win Brazil's presidential election. Then Lula won the runoff. Was the prediction market wrong? Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour explains what really happened, and what it means for the 2026 midterms. Mansour breaks down the biggest misunderstanding about prediction markets: a 25% chance isn't zero. It means that outcome should happen one in four times. He explains how markets absorb new information in real time, why accuracy can only be judged across thousands of markets (not one), and why Kalshi's odds are a probability, not a poll. ------ ▶️ WATCH THE FULL PODCAST: https://youtu.be/NpjEK5BtjQ0 👞 Get the NEW Billionaire Suede Loafer: https://bit.ly/4ym5oRA 🟩 GET STARTED ON KALSHI WITH $10 ON US! SIGN UP HERE: ⁠http://kalshi.com/pbd⁠ 👕 SHOP THE ICON COLLECTION: https://bit.ly/3TuUU3x 👞 GET THE FLB1's: https://bit.ly/4mC4uf6 Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP 👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj SUBSCRIBE TO: @VALUETAINMENT @BetDavidConsulting @vtgenz @ValuetainmentComedy ABOUT US: Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.