Jefferies aerospace and defense analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu warned in a new note that "A Democratic sweep would certainly put the reconciliation proposal at risk," potentially jeopardizing the Trump administration's rearmament supercycle and putting drone spending at risk.
The BofA US Drone Ecosystem Index has tumbled 40% from mid-January through Tuesday, while the S&P 500 gained 11%. The decline follows a nearly 120% rally from the end of 2024, as investors bet on a massive upcycle in domestic drone production.
But as Polymarket odds of a Democratic sweep have surged since late summer, forcing investors to sell defense names and pressuring the broader aerospace and defense sector lower amid concerns that Democrats would leave mandatory defense funding in limbo.
The Trump administration's proposed defense reconciliation package includes a $55 billion tranche for autonomous warfare that would bolster the military's ability to fight next-generation conflicts. The procurement process would tap rising stars in the defense space, such as AeroVironment, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Ondas, and even Anduril. The funding forms part of the $75
