So, after just over a week intothe current US/Israel/Iran war, how do things stand? It’s often difficult to see through the fog of war and propaganda of all sides in the conflict, but there are one or two things we can be sure of, and then one or two things of which we cannot be quite so sure.
It’s quite clear that considerable damage has been visited on Iran. US-Israeli airstrikes have decapitated the government there,killing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameneiand most of his leaders and advisers.
The second and third tiers in his hierarchy are now being hunted down with much the same results. At the same time, the IRGC, the glue that holds the theocratic regime together, has also been hit hard, as haveIran’s ballistic missiles manufacturing facilitiesand its ability to launch them. Plus, Iran’s navy has been more or less obliterated.
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What we cannot be sure of yet is whether Iran might, against the odds,be able to weather the storm. It replaces its leadership as quickly as it is taken out, and there is no real sign of a popular uprising against the regime, recent protests notwithstanding. Nor do we know whether armed groups like the Kurdish peshmerga and associated other militant groups might enter the fray.
To date, they have said they are not going to, despite US encouragement. The biggest known unknown of all is how long the US under the Trump administration will stay the course.
It may boast the most powerful armed forces on the planet, but even then, there is a time limit on how long the Americans can sustain theirhuge military presence in the region. At some point, they will have to pack up and go home.
Much depends on how the US president sees the endgame, and in this, he has been typically ambivalent. No sooner has he said that the war “is very complete, very much” than he changes tack and declares “we could call it a tremendous success right now. Or we could go further. And we’re going to go further”.
I don’t think even he knows what the final solution will look like. The prospect of thewar dragging on for monthsor even years is not an attractive one politically, and he will likely wish it to all be done and dusted by the time of the US mid-term elections in November at the very latest.
Source: Daily Express :: World Feed
