Somewhat unexpectedly, the global economy has weathered the challenges of the past few years extraordinarily well. Following the pandemic, shock followed shock — Russia’s war on Ukraine, Washington’s rejection of rule-based liberal trade, then most recently the war with Iran. Any one of these might’ve led you to expect a severe economic setback, let alone all three combined. Yet global output kept on growing. The International Monetary Fund’s new World Economic Outlook grapples with this puzzle — and sounds a warning that governments would be wise to heed. The system’s resilience has indeed been impressive, but there are limits. Steady growth against the odds has surprised the IMF’s economists as much as anyone: They’ve underestimated year-ahead global growth in every annual forecast since 2023. They currently expect output to expand by a respectable 3.1 percent this year and 3.4 percent in 2027, noting that some countries are doing better than others. The pattern has shifted in favor of those, like the U.S., with two key characteristics: limited exposure to the energ