Trump's Reverse Nixon Strategy: Bring Russia In, Shut China Out

Authored by Robert Berke via OilPrice,

On October 9, hours after a phone call between President Trump and President Putin, the Treasury Department issued a six-month waiver allowing Russian diesel to be sold on the global market.

The stated aim is to bring down fuel prices before the November 3 midterms. But I believe the deal is more consequential than that. It fits a larger strategy: for the United States to control as much of the world's energy supply as possible, while denying it to its chief rival, China.

A pattern, not a one-off

The strategy began in Venezuela. Since US forces captured President Maduro in January, Washington has effectively controlled the country's oil exports, and shipments to China, once Venezuela's largest customer, have collapsed.

Iran came next. China was the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and with the Strait of Hormuz closed, Gulf and Iranian energy has been choked off from China and the rest of the world, sending prices soaring. The President now claims "total control" of the Strait. Whatever the truth of that claim, a closed Hormuz does exactly what the strategy requires: it starves China of Middle Eastern supply.

Russia is the next piece. With Gulf oil cut off, Russia has become China's m