By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
Last weekend, in If This Was A Normal Week…, we focused on diesel and credit risk. Here it is, another weekend, and it seems like we once again need to focus on diesel and credit risk. We got to discuss this on Bloomberg TV on Monday. Bloomberg published this segment of the entire interview as a separate clip: AI Debt May Trigger Sharp Sell-off. It was also fun to get on the floor of the NYSE with the Schwab Network where we discussed Yellow Alert for Credit and the Risks of Cheap Chinese Compute.
While the concerns looked a little silly early in the week, after gains for big tech on Monday and Wednesday, they looked a lot more realistic by the end of the week. Thursday’s selling pressure brought the risks back to the forefront (the FT picked up on our view of what was driving markets).
They are two separate stories. Diesel is basically a function of geopolitics and conflict. Credit Risk and Equity Risk are primarily a function of the compute buildout: the pace of the compute buildout, the ability to fund it, and the profitability of the compute once it is funded and built.
Compute Spend is the single biggest story facing the economy and markets.
- Using Grok, it seems reasonable to attrib
