The impact of El Niño weather conditions appears to be bearish for US natural gas futures, as the fuel used to heat homes and power industry posted its largest weekly decline in eight months last week.
Temperatures in the 70s this November in the East? Seems possible 🌡️ https://t.co/2iISBbKWiX
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 24, 2026
The November contract fell 5.6% on Friday to settle at $2.64 per million British thermal units, bringing its weekly loss to 15%, the largest since early February.
Weather forecasts for the Lower 48 show above-average temperatures through the end of the month and into early November.
This has depressed heating demand.
Commodity Weather Group expects October and November combined to be the third-warmest period since records began in 1950, reinforcing expectations for a mild winter driven by El Niño.
BOK Financial Securities' Dennis Kissler said that NatGas production cuts may be needed to stabilize prices if warmer weather trends persist across the Lower 48.
Across the Atlantic, European NatGas prices, as measured by the TTF benchmark, reached their highest leve
