The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has entered its second week, and it shows no signs of slowing down. Instead, the war is widening, drawing in at least a dozen other countries. And despite the high-intensity strikes and counterstrikes, neither side seems to have really achieved its goals, as both claim that they can outlast the other.
Could this conflict now evolve into a prolonged war of attrition? As per US officials, President Donald Trump had expected the February 28 strike - that eliminated Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with dozens of other top defense officials - to trigger the collapse of the Islamic Republic. If not that, a scenario similar to Venezuela was expected, where the US succeeded in forcing a political transition.
However, neither scenario seems to be coming true for Iran. Instead, a successor to Khamenei has already been chosen - his son Mojtaba Khamenei, a hardliner who has vowed retaliation.
At the same time, there seems to be no internal uprising against the Iranian state.
If the war drags on, Russia will emerge as a big beneficiary, benefiting from the surging oil and natural gas prices. On the other hand, the West, the Gulf nations - and even China - could face increasing economic pressure. Because Iran, which has continued its ballistic missile and drone strikes at US bases, Israel and key Gulf cities, has also shut down the strategic shipping route Strait of Hormuz - which handles roughly one-fifth of the global oil and natural gas shipments.
However, this is where Iran seems to have failed. It may have struck Gulf infrastructure to force the monarchies there to push Washington for a ceasefire, but the Gulf countries instead have vowed retaliation. Countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have all displayed resilience, intercepting most incoming drones and missiles from Iran.
"Whatever is hurting us is also hurting the Iranians, and their capability to persevere is less than ours. We can manage, and I don't think they can sustain this," said Bader al-Saif, a historian at Kuwait University, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Right now it seems that both Washington and Tehran misread each other, as well as their ability to respond, turning the conflict into a wider war. And neither side seems to know the exit route from this war. On Monday, US President Donald Trump, in his characteristic flair, said the war would end "very soon", before adding that the US would "go further". His remarks came after a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who shared proposals on quickly ending the conflict.
Trump's Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth struck an even harsher tone. "This is war. This is conflict. This is bringing your enemy to their knees. Whether they have a ceremony in Tehran Square and surrender, that's up to them," he said in a CBS interview.
Iran, however, launched hundreds of drones and missiles across the Middle East on the same day.
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