OXFORD — The divide between artificial intelligence (AI) fantasists and doomsters is growing. The fantasists believe AI will turbocharge growth and create a utopian world of abundance. The doomsters believe it poses an existential threat to humanity and that, before killing us, it will lead to mass unemployment and a world of pervasive surveillance and alternative realities. Who is right? And can governments do anything to mitigate the risk of catastrophe? AI enthusiasts gush about the technology’s implications for productivity. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has predicted that U.S. GDP growth will rise from today’s paltry 2 percent to 10–15 percent. Elon Musk expects it to double U.S. growth to more than 4 percent next year and believes machines will soon replace humans in almost every occupation. This is an illusion, if not a delusion. The data-center boom and soaring stock-market valuations may boost near-term growth, but their contribution will be short-lived. After all, much of the economic activity in developed countries takes place in sectors where AI will have little effect