As we wrote in our preview, hopes are high for what SpaceX will report today. The company is expected to report solid revenue growth, however more than offset by far more solid capex growth which will result in SpaceX burning almost a quarter trillion over the next 3 years as it builds out its data center capacity. Notably, SpaceX could post its first quarterly profit today - though this is only its second earnings report as a public company. Wall Street expects earnings of 15 cents a share, or about $1.9 billion in net income, compared with a $541 million loss last quarter.
Besides the top and FCF lines, Deutsche's list of "other areas of focus" is a good checklist of what else to look for:
- AI: neocloud pricing and new contracts, the Cursor contribution, Grok Bot adoption, and the data center capex outlook (read: any hint that 2027 capex starts with a "2").
- Launch: timing of the next few launches after Flight 14; Flight 15 looks set for mid-/late November, though DB doesn't expect a second-stage catch.
- Connectivity: after the $8 billion Grain spectrum deal, "additional color on management's next move(s) in the US (build vs. buy)," which is something the wireless carriers will be listening to closely.
Additionally, investors are seeking additional hints about a potential Tesla and SpaceX merger. Today’s earnings are happening just a few days after Tesla unveiled its new Roadster, which incorporated SpaceX gas thrusters that allowed the vehicle to hover and do barrel rolls in the air. Following the event, a bunch of Tesla and SpaceX executives and employees started following each other on X, according to an account that monitors tech executives. D
