Back in late August, Goldman Sachs commodities expert Samantha Dart warned that EU natural gas prices would need to soar dramatically to discourage Asian LNG demand and shift cargoes to Europe amid disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz.
*EUROPE'S GAS BENCHMARK EXCEEDS €90 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2022
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 20, 2026
Fast forward to Tuesday morning, European gas prices (TTF) have topped 90 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since late 2022. Notably, Dart warned about where prices were headed when EU NatGas was trading around 67 euros.
Separately, Goldman's Daan Struyven and Dart released a new note earlier today, putting their base case for Brent crude at $90 a barrel and European benchmark EU NatGas at 70 euros by year-end, assuming a recovery in Middle Eastern supply and easing risk premiums. Brent is forecast to average $80 in 2027.
However, they warned that risks remained skewed toward the upside: Brent crude could climb to $140 early next year and average about $125 in 2027 if Gulf oil output averages 5 million barrels a day below February 2026 levels. As for EU NatGas, they warned it could soar to 150 euros if Gulf LNG exports remain at just one quarter of normal levels and a more severe winter boosts heating demand.
Here's what they said:
Our base case is that a further recovery in Mideast supply and a
