Bolsonaro, Lula Tied In Latest Poll As Brazil's Runoff Election Countdown Enters Final Week

Brazil's right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva traded barbs in their first presidential debate on Sunday night. The latest polling data show Bolsonaro's lead over Lula has narrowed ahead of this weekend's runoff election.

🚨 JUST IN: In a stunning moment, socialist Brazil President Lula THREATENS right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro on TV with a LEGAL PERSECUTION if he wins This is enraging. LULA: "On the 25th, you're gonna LOSE your immunity. GET READY...you're going to have problems. Your life is going to have a lot of investigations!" 😡 Bolsonaro clapped back, calling him CORRUPT and he's spot-on 💯 If he loses, he loses his congressional protections, and Lula just told him on live TV what comes next. They want to go after him like his father! Back in April, Alexandre de Moraes also opened an inquiry into Flavio for "calumny" against Lula over an X post His father is already in prison, his brother Eduardo is in the U.S., and now the sitting president is promising more investigations for the son! VOTE FOR BOLSONARO AND END THE MADNESS

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 19, 2026

A BTG Pactual/Nexus survey showed Bolsonaro at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7%, a statistical tie within the poll's two-percentage-point margin of error. A week earlier, the survey had Bolsonaro leading 51.6% to 48.4%.

An AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg showed Bolsonaro ahead at 51.1% to 48.9%. That previous poll found Bolsonaro leading 53% to 47%. The poll's margin of error is around one point. 

Lula's recent poll boost likely stemmed from last week's Senate approval of his plan to shorten the workweek, a centerpie