Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
Maybe it was because I was in Europe that last week didn’t seem “normal.” Maybe that is why some of the things that I would think are most topical don’t seem topical (or at least weren’t what markets were responding to?). Or maybe it was just a weird week, where the underlying narrative wasn’t as much about the usual suspects, and was much more about supply (of bonds, energy, chips), stop losses (in every market everywhere), and dismal depth of true liquidity (or what we refer to as faux liquidity?).
In any case, much of the price action fits well into our recent narratives, and we were lucky enough to get to focus on yields not being driven by traditional data, and the warning signs coming from credit markets bright and early on Friday morning to kick off Morning Call on CNBC (which timewise wasn’t so bad from a hotel room in Paris).
Did Politics Even Matter?
There seemed to be no shortage of news on the domestic political front that individually might have moved markets, and collectively should have (and maybe it did play a role, but it certainly wasn’t the driving issue, which likely means it is lurking, making any recovery for risk takers more difficult):
- Russian diesel. On September 18th the President signed the “bipartisan” Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law. On October 17th (less than one month after signing the law and two days before the implementation deadline), the President waived part of the bill. Clearly a lot going on with the ongoing fighting with Iran, with the Houthis and Sau
