Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Will interest rates go up to 6%? That's the question on many investors' minds since Pimco's chief investment officer, Dan Ivascyn, told the Financial Times last Friday that a 6% 10-year Treasury yield is "certainly possible." This week's hotter-than-expected September CPI report only added fuel to that argument.
I get it. The 10-year closed at 5.31% on October 5, the highest close since May 2002. It started the year at 4.18%. However, look at what is actually driving inflation. Then look at how every major yield spike since 1990 ended. The case for a sustained move to 6% gets thin quickly.
Pimco's 6% Call, And Why It Landed
In case you didn't read the article, let's start with what Ivascyn actually said, because the headlines compressed it. He did not forecast 6%. He said it was possible, and he tied a big part of the recent move to market plumbing rather than economics.
"It is certainly possible, even from a short-term trading perspective... some of the activity we've seen in the last couple of weeks is tied to some negative technicals." - Dan Ivascyn, Pimco, to the Financial Times, October 9, 2026
Furthermore, he also flagged "stop-out activity from the platform hedge funds and other levered investors," and warned that a move to 5.5% or higher would bring "some decent weakness in risk markets, both credit and equity."
Read that last part twice, because I'll come back to it, and it was a topic we touched on when we discussed the READ MORE AT SOURCE »
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