Brazil's general elections earlier this month sparked a right-wing wave at the polls. Though most polls forecast socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly leading in the first-round presidential race, right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro beat the unhinged leftist by around 2 percentage points.
Bolsonaro and Lula now head to an October 25 runoff, with the latest polls putting Bolsonaro ahead.
A PoderData/Aya survey released earlier today put Bolsonaro at 51% of valid votes and Lula at 49%, a statistical tie within the poll's 1.8-percentage-point margin of error. Bolsonaro's lead narrowed to 2 percentage points from 6 in the October 8 poll. The senator lost 2 points while Lula gained 2 points in the latest survey, conducted over the weekend.
A separate BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released today showed Bolsonaro ahead by a wider margin, with 52% of valid votes against Lula's 48%. That survey interviewed 2,002 voters over the same period and carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Polymarket odds imply an 86.5% probability of a Bolsonaro victory in Brazil's presidential election, compared with 14% for Lula (as of early Tuesday morning).
Just over a week after Brazilian equities surged following Bolsonaro's first-round win, Goldman Sachs analysts have provided clients with a detailed breakdown of foreign inflows, highlighting how international investors are piling in for a Bolsonaro victory in the runoff.
Goldman's trading desk described last week as "the bu
