- Category three Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall at 7pm tonight as strong winds and storm surges lash the Gulf Coast. Federal forecasters predict Isaias to hit Pensacola, Florida, with life-threatening conditions extending from New Orleans to Tallahassee. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for dozens of coastal counties in Alabama and Florida as the storm brings damaging winds, floods and a chance of tornadoes in the Southeast. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said: 'Just-received data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Isaias has strengthened to a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.' Isaias is the first of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and is forecasted to be the first to strike the US since Hurricane Milton in 2024. Hurricane Isaias Shutters 63% of US Gulf Oil Production Bloomberg cites data from the Marine Minerals Administration showing US Gulf offshore oil producers have halted about 1.28 million barrels per day, equivalent to shutting in 63% of regional output. Natural gas shut-ins reached 1.127 billion cubic feet a day, equivalent to 57% of the region's production. By noon Central Time, workers from 121 offshore platforms had evacuated, while four rigs had moved outside Hurricane Isaias' cone of uncertainty. This is a massive temporary hit to US crude supply. The next big issue is that refineries may see a decline in crude supply as offshore platforms reduce flows. Any refinery outage from storm-related damage would reduce fuel product production as a global refining crisis deepens. Jefferies consumer staples analyst Kaumil Gajrawala warned clients ealrier today: "Hurricane Isaias is a fuel supply event hitting a system already stretched by the Iran war. ~25% of Gulf crude output is shut in (~4% of US production), but fuel inventories are low and diesel is $6.30 vs. $3.68 a year ago. A small disruption now has outsized price consequences. The second-order effect