For the fourth week in a row, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time printed below 200k (197k) implying the layoff/separation rate is extremely subdued.
Employers are not cutting headcount in any meaningful way - job security for people who already have jobs is still pretty good.
California saw by far the biggest jump in initial claims...
Continuing jobless claims fell once again - now at its lowest since April 2023...
However, payrolls tell the other half of the story. September nonfarm payrolls came in at just +29k (with prior months revised down), well below the already modest recent trend. Net employment change is simply hires minus separations. When separations are that low but the net number is mediocre, hiring itself must have slowed substantially.
So the market has cooled mainly through reduced hiring rather than rising firings. That keeps the unemployment rate relatively contained (4.2% in September) even as it becomes harder for job seekers, switchers, and new entrants to land roles.
Economists (including various Fed research notes) have been describing this as a stable-but-fragile equilibrium for a while: low layoffs prop things up, but the low hiring rate leaves little cushion if demand weakens further or a shock forces companies to start cutting.
It’s also consistent with s
