Americans' expectations for inflation over the near-tern jumped last month while their sentiment toward the labor market improved, the latest NY Fed Federal survey of consumer expectations showed on Wednesday.
Consumers’ estimates for inflation one-year ahead rose to a median 3.9% in September, up from 3.6% the prior month, reaching the highest level since May of 2023. At the same time, inflation expectations increased 0.1% to 3.3% at three-year horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at five-year horizon.
Over the next year consumers expect gasoline prices to rise 4.8%; food prices to rise 5.5%; medical costs to rise 9.2%; the price of a college education to rise 7.5%; rent prices to rise 6.8%
While the inflation outlook deteriorated, views on the labor market improved as workers saw a lower probability of losing their jobs and higher odds of voluntarily quitting, the New York Fed’s monthly consumer expectations survey showed. The proportion of respondents expecting the overall unemployment rate to rise in the next year fell fractionally to around 44%. Their perceived chances of finding a new role in the next three months if they lost their current job increased to 46%.
Consumers’ expectations of losing their jobs in the next year fell, with the outlook improving the most for workers between 40 and 60 years old and with annual household incomes above $100,000. Chances of leaving a post voluntarily also rose, especially among wor
