The latest escalation in the Middle East has once again reminded energy markets how quickly geopolitical shocks can disrupt global supply chains and reshape price expectations. Similar dynamics were visible in early 2022, when the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine War triggered one of the most volatile periods the energy industry had experienced in decades.
European refining margins surged to levels widely described in public reporting as historic highs. Natural gas prices spiked dramatically. Freight markets tightened. Governments introduced windfall taxes. Across Europe, long-term capital assumptions were reassessed. For many companies in the energy industry, 2022 became a year of record earnings.
Inside finance organisations, however, the experience was less about profit-taking and more about managing structural exposure. While earnings reached historic highs and governments increased fiscal pressure through windfall taxes, the structural outlook for the industry in Europe was becoming increasingly uncertain.
European Union policy continued to accelerate the transition toward lower emissions, reinforcing projections of structurally declining fossil fuel demand across the region. The volatility exposed weaknesses in how planning and capital allocation systems function when strong short-term performance exists alongside long-term strategic risk.
Werner van Rossum, a senior finance and enterprise transformation leader who at the time served as regional FP&A leader for an Energy Products portfolio spanning Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, saw this tension play out directly. He observed that most enterprise planning structures are built to manage downside pressure. They are less prepared for situations in which earnings improve sharply while the broader trajectory of the business becomes less predictable.
'Planning models are often calibrated for stability', van Rossum says. 'They are not naturally designed for environments where profitability strengthens but structural risk increases at the same time.'
When van Rossum transferred in August 2021 to lead financial planning and analysis for the regional business of a large multinational energy company across Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, the portfolio was emerging from two of the most difficult years in its recent history.
Pandemic-driven demand destruction had pushed earnings deeply negative. Margins were compressed, and cost structures were under strain across multiple markets.
Working closely with the regional vice president and executive leadership team, van Rossum was responsible for performance transparency and forward-looking planning at a time when structural viability was the central concern.
Within months, the external environment shifted.
Source: International Business Times UK
